| 1. |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
| 1.1. |
An imminent boom in eLCV sales |
| 1.2. |
Light commercial vehicle classification |
| 1.3. |
Continued growth in road freight demand |
| 1.4. |
Electric small vans TCO advantage over diesel |
| 1.5. |
eLCV regional summary |
| 1.6. |
Key global forecast takeaways |
| 1.7. |
Key Regional Forecast takeaways: |
| 1.8. |
LCV global sales (000s units) |
| 1.9. |
eLCV global sales by region (000s units) |
| 1.10. |
eLCV battery requirement forecast by region (GWh) |
| 1.11. |
eLCV market forecast by region ($US Bn) |
| 2. |
INTRODUCTION |
| 2.1. |
Climate change |
| 2.2. |
Global CO2 emission from transport |
| 2.3. |
CO2 emissions from the LCV sector |
| 2.4. |
Urban air quality |
| 2.5. |
Road transport the main source of urban NOx |
| 2.6. |
Global efforts to limit urban road transport emissions |
| 2.7. |
National diesel and petrol vehicle bans |
| 2.8. |
The worldwide freight transport industry |
| 2.9. |
Projected increase in global road freight activity |
| 2.10. |
The rise of e-commerce: increased freight demand |
| 2.11. |
Fuel / emissions regulation for new LCVs |
| 2.12. |
GHG emission from light commercial vehicles |
| 2.13. |
Europe legislating CO2 emission from LCV |
| 2.14. |
The developing electric light commercial vehicle market |
| 2.15. |
The developing electric light commercial vehicle market |
| 2.16. |
Considerations for eLCV adoption |
| 2.17. |
Do electric LCVs offer sufficient range? |
| 2.18. |
An imminent boom in eLCV sales |
| 2.19. |
New eLCV sales (BEV & PHEV), 2005-18 (000s) |
| 2.20. |
eLCV stock (BEV & PHEV), by country, 2005-18 (000s) |
| 3. |
LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLE CLASSIFICATION |
| 3.1. |
Light commercial vehicle classification |
| 3.2. |
Different segments of goods transportation by land |
| 3.3. |
Types of popular on-road truck |
| 3.4. |
LCV fleet description by region |
| 4. |
TCO CONSIDERATIONS FOR ELCV |
| 4.1. |
Environmental goodwill insufficient for uptake of eLCV |
| 4.2. |
TCO considerations for eLCV |
| 4.3. |
Overcoming barriers for low emission technologies |
| 4.4. |
Example: TCO for eLCV (Renault Kangoo) |
| 4.5. |
Example: TCO for eLCV (Nissan e-NV200) |
| 4.6. |
Timeline for TCO parity between diesel and eLCV |
| 4.7. |
When will cost parity be reached? |
| 4.8. |
Electric and diesel LCV cost parity |
| 5. |
ELECTRIC LCVS IN EUROPE |
| 5.1. |
Europe: LCV sales 2018 |
| 5.2. |
European market for LCVs |
| 5.3. |
European in-use LCV fleet and new registrations |
| 5.4. |
New registrations in Europe’s six largest LCV fleets |
| 5.5. |
2018 European Electric LCV Sales |
| 5.6. |
Popular e-LCVs in Europe |
| 5.7. |
Popular e-LCVs in Europe: StreetScooter |
| 5.8. |
Popular e-LCVs in Europe: compact utility vehicles |
| 5.9. |
Future e-LCVs in Europe |
| 5.10. |
Specifications of eLCVs available in Europe |
| 5.11. |
Arrival: Investment from Hyundai Motor Group |
| 5.12. |
Market outlook: national and local policy |
| 5.13. |
Market Outlook: Example Sweden Forecast |
| 6. |
ELECTRIC LCVS IN CHINA |
| 6.1. |
China: Commercial Vehicle Sales 2018 |
| 6.2. |
Chinese Market for Light Commercial Vehicles |
| 6.3. |
China: Electric Special-Purpose Vehicle Sales |
| 6.4. |
Popular Electric Micro-Vans in China |
| 6.5. |
Popular Electric Vans in China |
| 6.6. |
China: Main Battery Suppliers to Chinese Electric LCVs |
| 6.7. |
China: Main Motor Suppliers to Chinese Electric LCVs |
| 6.8. |
Drivers for the electrification of LCVs in China |
| 6.9. |
Drivers for Electrification of LCV Market in China |
| 6.10. |
Market Outlook: China electric LCVs |
| 7. |
ELECTRIC LCVS IN THE US |
| 7.1. |
US: Commercial Van Sales 2018 |
| 7.2. |
US Market for Vans |
| 7.3. |
Popular Electric Vans in the US |
| 7.4. |
Rivian / Amazon electric delivery van |
| 7.5. |
Business to drive electrification of LCV fleet in US? |
| 8. |
ELECTRIC LCVS IN THE ROW |
| 8.1. |
Toyota PROACE |
| 8.2. |
Yamato / DHL StreetScooter |
| 8.3. |
Mitsubishi MiniCab MiEV Van |
| 8.4. |
Hyundai-Kia |
| 8.5. |
Tata Motors Ace |
| 8.6. |
Mahindra eSupro Cargo Van |
| 8.7. |
Maruti Suzuki India Eeco Charge Concept |
| 8.8. |
Ashok Leyland – Too early to move LCV range electric |
| 8.9. |
Croyance Electro 1.T and Electro 2.T |
| 8.10. |
SEA E4V Delivery Van |
| 9. |
2020 SALES UPDATE: EUROPE, U.S. & CHINA |
| 9.1. |
Europe eLCV Sales 2020 |
| 9.2. |
BEV Light Commercial Vehicle Sales – EU Country |
| 9.3. |
Europe eLCV 2020 Market Leaders |
| 9.4. |
eLCV European Market Share: Mercedes-Benz |
| 9.5. |
eLCV Growing Market Share in Europe: |
| 9.6. |
2020 European BEV eLCV Registrations |
| 9.7. |
New eLCV Models for 2021 – Stellantis to Rise |
| 9.8. |
Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) Van Sales in Europe |
| 9.9. |
Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) Van Sales in Europe |
| 9.10. |
Fuel Cell Electric Vans – Holthausen |
| 9.11. |
LCV U.S. Van Addressable Market Registrations |
| 9.12. |
Ford E-Transit Specifications |
| 9.13. |
General Motors EV600 Cargo Van |
| 9.14. |
Mercedes-Benz Next Generation eSprinter |
| 9.15. |
Other US eLCVs – Canoo & Rivian |
| 9.16. |
Other US eLCVs – Bollinger & Arrival |
| 9.17. |
Other U.S. eLCVs – Tesla Van? Yes, But Not Yet |
| 9.18. |
Joe Biden’s Commercial Vehicle EV Revolution |
| 9.19. |
China Light Commercial Vehicle Addressable Market |
| 9.20. |
China NEV eLCV Sales 2020 |
| 9.21. |
Top 20 New Energy Logistics Vehicle Manufacturers |
| 9.22. |
Chinese 2020 eLCV Sales by Category |
| 9.23. |
Best Selling Micro Van eLCVs in China 2020 |
| 9.24. |
Best Selling Sea Lion Van eLCVs in China 2020 |
| 9.25. |
Best Selling Sprinter Van eLCVs in China 2020 |
| 9.26. |
Best Selling Micro Truck eLCVs in China 2020 |
| 9.27. |
Electric SPV Motor Manufacturers 2020 |
| 9.28. |
China eLCV Outlook after H1 2021: eLCV Sales to Grow |
| 10. |
KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES |
| 10.1. |
The key enabling technologies are changing |
| 10.2. |
Research reports |
| 10.3. |
Energy storage |
| 10.4. |
Is LiB Capacity sufficient? |
| 10.5. |
More than one type of cell design |
| 10.6. |
Cell, module, and pack |
| 10.7. |
Changes at cell level |
| 10.8. |
Timeline for cell improvements |
| 10.9. |
How do high-power ES variants compare? |
| 10.10. |
Motor technology choices |
| 10.11. |
Technology preference by type of vehicle |
| 10.12. |
Limited 48V opportunity with delivery vans |
| 10.13. |
Ford Transit Custom PHEV |
| 11. |
KEY PLAYER CHANGES IN THE ELECTRIC VAN MARKET |
| 11.1. |
Increasing eLCV sales in Europe |
| 11.2. |
European eLCV market leaders |
| 11.3. |
The end of the road for StreetScooter |
| 11.4. |
Rise of the large eLCV? |
| 11.5. |
Movers: Daimler enter the fray |
| 11.6. |
PHEV LCVs |
| 11.7. |
Vastly increasing eVan model choice |
| 11.8. |
A new arrival |
| 11.9. |
US commercial van sales 2019 |
| 11.10. |
US commercial van market 2019 |
| 11.11. |
Corporate Electric Vehicle Alliance |
| 11.12. |
Ford: Finally an OEM offering an eVan option in the US! |
| 11.13. |
Rivian: Three sizes of delivery van for Amazon |
| 11.14. |
China NEV SPV sales falls in 2019 |
| 11.15. |
Best selling new energy vans in China |
| 11.16. |
Best selling new energy vans in China |
| 11.17. |
Battery suppliers to the Chinese NEV SPV Market |
| 11.18. |
China to support NEV SPV sales in 2nd and 3rd Tier Cities |
| 11.19. |
BAIC EV5 with UV disinfection to counter Covid-19 |
| 12. |
ELCV MARKET FORECASTS 2020-2030 |
| 12.1. |
Assumptions behind the LCV forecasts |
| 12.2. |
Market forecast: Average battery capacity for electric LCV (kWh) in Europe 2020-2030 |
| 12.3. |
Market forecast: Average battery capacity for electric LCV (kWh) in China 2020-2030 |
| 12.4. |
Market forecast: Average battery capacity for electric LCV (kWh) in the North America 2020-2030 |
| 12.5. |
Market forecast: Average battery capacity for electric LCV (kWh) in the ROW 2020-2030 |
| 12.6. |
Global Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030 |
| 12.7. |
LCV global sales (000s units) |
| 12.8. |
eLCV global sales (000s units) |
| 12.9. |
eLCV global sales by region (000s units) |
| 12.10. |
Global LCV market share forecast for eLCV |
| 12.11. |
Global eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh) |
| 12.12. |
eLCV battery requirement forecast by region (GWh) |
| 12.13. |
LCV (all fuels) market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn) |
| 12.14. |
LCV (all fuels) market forecast 2020-2030 by region ($ Bn) |
| 12.15. |
eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn) |
| 12.16. |
eLCV market forecast by region ($US Bn) |
| 12.17. |
Forecast eLCV share of total LCV market revenue |
| 12.18. |
Europe Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030 |
| 12.19. |
Europe LCV sales (000s units) |
| 12.20. |
Europe eLCV sales (000s units) |
| 12.21. |
Europe LCV market share forecast for eLCV |
| 12.22. |
Europe eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh) |
| 12.23. |
Europe eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn) |
| 12.24. |
Forecast eLCV share of total Europe LCV market revenue |
| 12.25. |
China Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030 |
| 12.26. |
China LCV sales (000s units) |
| 12.27. |
China eLCV sales (000s units) |
| 12.28. |
China LCV market share forecast for eLCV |
| 12.29. |
China eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh) |
| 12.30. |
China eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn) |
| 12.31. |
Forecast eLCV share of total China LCV market revenue |
| 12.32. |
North America Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030 |
| 12.33. |
North America (NA) LCV sales (000s units) |
| 12.34. |
NA eLCV sales (000s units) |
| 12.35. |
NA LCV market share forecast for eLCV |
| 12.36. |
NA eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh) |
| 12.37. |
NA eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn) |
| 12.38. |
Forecast eLCV share of total NA LCV market revenue |
| 12.39. |
ROW Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030 |
| 12.40. |
ROW LCV sales (000s units) |
| 12.41. |
ROW eLCV sales (000s units) |
| 12.42. |
ROW LCV market share forecast for eLCV |
| 12.43. |
ROW eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh) |
| 12.44. |
ROW eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn) |
| 12.45. |
Forecast eLCV share of total ROW LCV market revenue |
| 12.46. |
EU+EFTA Sales Forecast: eLCV market 2020-2030, by county, for markets greater than 25,000 LCV units p.a. |
| 12.47. |
Austria eLCV sales and market penetration forecast |
| 12.48. |
Belgium eLCV sales and market penetration forecast |
| 12.49. |
Denmark eLCV sales and market penetration forecast |
| 12.50. |
France eLCV sales and market penetration forecast |
| 12.51. |
Germany eLCV sales and market penetration forecast |
| 12.52. |
Ireland eLCV sales and market penetration forecast |
| 12.53. |
Italy eLCV sales and market penetration forecast |
| 12.54. |
Netherlands eLCV sales and market penetration forecast |
| 12.55. |
Poland eLCV sales and market penetration forecast |
| 12.56. |
Portugal eLCV sales and market penetration forecast |
| 12.57. |
Spain eLCV sales and market penetration forecast |
| 12.58. |
Sweden eLCV sales and market penetration forecast |
| 12.59. |
UK eLCV sales and market penetration forecast |
| 12.60. |
Norway eLCV sales and market penetration forecast |
| 12.61. |
Switzerland eLCV sales and market penetration forecast |
| 12.62. |
Europe Forecast: eLCV Market 2020-2040 For France, UK and Germany |
| 12.63. |
France eLCV penetration and sales, pathway to 2040 |
| 12.64. |
UK eLCV penetration and sales, pathway to 2040 |
| 12.65. |
Germany eLCV penetration and sales, pathway to 2040 |
Source: https://www.idtechex.com/en/research-report/electric-hybrid-and-fuel-cell-light-commercial-vehicles-2021-2041/783
